The Most Dangerous Speech in History?

As we stand on the precipice of a widening conflict in the Middle East, it is natural to look back and see how we got here. There are, of course, many varied and complex reasons for the current mayhem in the Middle East. The creation of Israel, the fall of communism, the impending energy crisis, etc. However, the last six years have seen a huge shift in western policy around the world, particularly in the United States (aided and abetted by the UK) and, I would argue, that one speech has had a massive impact on the current situation.

Back in January 2002, George Bush gave his State of the Union address. It came just four short months after the attacks on the World Trade Centre, and the politicians were in bullish mood, keen to utilise the event to launch a world-wide campaign against 'rogue states'. Those that ran the White House (Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz et al) were eager to launch their 'Project for the New American Century' upon an unsuspecting world. It was with this background that David Frum helped prepare Bush's State of the Union address. The problem facing Frum was using the public mood to support the aims of the 'project'. It would be unwise to be too overt about the objectives of this cabal, far better to unify the American people against a common enemy. And it was with this common enemy that the 'axis of evil' came into being.

The 'axis of evil' focused on three main countries (although that has now been widened to six, courtesy of John Bolton); Iran, North Korea and, of course, Iraq. The basis from Frum's idea of calling this triumvirate an 'axis' came from his interpretation of the Second World War. He believed that, like the axis powers in the 30s and 40s, these three have major ideological differences that are put to one side in the quest to destroy the West. The added bonus was the use of the theological language of 'evil', instead of his preferred choice of 'hatred'. Now it had a strong religious/moral justification.

Not long after this speech, the US engaged in an illegal war in Iraq on the flimsy basis of WMDs. The moral crusade had begun. The action in Iraq has led to an estimated 44,000 Iraqi civilian deaths, to date. And with the chaos in the country, this number will continue to rise at an alarming rate. The Frum speech played a massive part in utilising the population's unification to garner support for this offensive. Even now, the speech has massive implications around the world, and particularly in the Middle East at the moment.

The current situation in Lebanon has been exacerbated by the lack of diplomatic leverage in the region. This stems directly from the 'axis of evil' rhetoric that has been used in the past. The US and, by extension, the UK have no influence left in the region. Whether Hezbollah is a proxy of Iran or not, there is an inability to use diplomatic avenues to resolve the conflict. All ties have effectively been cut. Without the diplomatic ties, the US will become further isolated in the region and unable to work diplomatically to resolve the disputes that threaten stability. The administration has effectively backed itself into a corner with no room to manoeuvre. Consequently, hundreds of innocent civilians will continue to die as a result of the US being unable to exert any kind of influence on the region. All pretence that the US can act as a peacekeeper in the Middle East has been blown away by their inability to use effective diplomacy and their reliance on belligerent rhetoric.

I would argue that the 2002 address has played a huge role in the current situation that is unraveling around the Middle East. It has compromised the west's ability to work with leaders in the region to ensure a lasting peace as well as broader stability. Instead, the US has weakened itself by alienating itself from Iran and Syria even further and thus being unable to use diplomacy instead of aggression. Foolish rhetoric, such as that used in the speech, has led to America being seen only as an aggressor in the region and that will continue for some time yet. As hundreds continue to die in Lebanon, is this speech the most dangerous of all time?