After The War Comes The Opportunity

It is no surprise to learn that the American government is lining up potential investors in Georgia:

The US Department of Commerce is working with two private American-Georgian business associations to stage a trade summit in Tbilisi in late October. The initiative is part of a general effort to bolster investor confidence in Georgia.

The Bush administration has been a leading backer of Georgia as the Caucasus country rebuilds following Russia’s August invasion. The US Congress has already approved an administration-sponsored aid package worth as much as $1 billion. The idea for the business summit reportedly came from the "highest level" in Washington, and it is seen as a means to stimulate private-sector interest in Georgia’s economic recovery.

While the guest list for the summit has not been publicly released, organizers note that some Fortune 500 companies, as well as large private equity firms, have expressed an intention to attend. According to a partial list of confirmed companies made available to EurasiaNet, investors are considering multi-million dollar projects in several sectors including hydro-power production, power transmission, wind energy, hospitals and wine. The summit will be chaired by Deputy Commerce Secretary John Sullivan. In addition to organizing the Tbilisi summit, the US Trade Office is pushing Congress to expand Georgia’s eligibility for duty-free imports to the United States.

According to Tamara Koziridze, a deputy economic minister, the Georgian government is "hoping" that summit will bring new investment into the country. "We hope very much it will be productive in the sense that companies with a real interest in Georgia will participate and will have sufficient follow up," Kovziridze said.

What a fantastic opportunity for corporate America. Multi-million dollar contracts will be signed, huge swathes of the Georgian economy will be handed over to American companies and American hegemony in the region will be confirmed. It's almost like the US wanted Georgia (one of the fastest growing ecnomies in the region) to start a war it was bound to lose if only to pick up the pieces and have a tasty slice of future growth with the aid of a neo-conservative, anti-democratic Georgian leader. Good work chaps.

American Military To Prevent Coup in Georgia?

There has been much talk of the aid being given to the Georgians in the wake of their folly a week ago. Which begs a few questions. Are the Americans providing aid for purely altruistic reasons? Doubtful. Are they sending a message to the Russian government? Certainly. Or are the Americans truly scared that Saakashvili will topple as a result of his humiliation in Georgia and are trying to pre-empt any attempts to overthrow this 'vital ally'? I would say almost definitely.

Saakashvili is certainly in a very precarious position at the moment. His poll ratings were already falling quite dramatically before this latest crisis, mainly due to his preference for sending armed police to disrupt any demonstrations against his rule. His utter failure to complete that which he had pledged (the unification of all parts of Georgia), ensures that even his staunchest supporters must be wavering right now. And that will come as a real concern to a White House that sees this part of the world as strategically vital to US ambitions globally. The toppling of a pro-American leader in this region could have massive implications for the US, not least in relation to the Missile Defence program.

Georgia is one of the countries muted to be a base for these so-called 'defensive' weapons, which is why the US has been so keen to push the case for their membership of NATO. The removal of a leader keen to bend to the wishes of the US would ensure that the 'missile shield' would not receive Georgian approval - a particular problem given the proximity of Georgia to Iran (the supposed target of the 'missile shield'). And with Poland now keen to sign up to missile bases on their territory, the US will be eager to get other allies on board as soon as possible. And what better way to ensure that there is no immediate likelihood of their prized possession in the region coming to harm than to send US troops into the region to provide 'aid'? No doubt the Georgian people will think twice about rising up against Saakashvili as long as they have a superpower paying a 'friendly' visit. Only a few days ago the Georgian leader was talking of Russian occupation in one of his more fantastical pronouncements. There certainly appears to be an occupation, but it is not Russian.

South Ossetia Through the Looking Glass

We helped in Iraq - now help us, beg Georgians

So says the highly emotive front page of today's Times. Such a headline has reflected a broader trend across the media to represent Georgia as an innocent party in the current conflict. As ever, the story is far more complex than that, not least because the conflict was instigated by a Georgian leader eager to boost his ratings and please his Western allies.

Mikheil Saakashvili came to power in 2004 after the so-called 'Rose Revolution' that brought to an end the presidency of Eduard Shevardnadze. Saakashvili rode into power on the back of a commitment to unite Georgia and usher in a new era of pro-Western Georgian politics (much to the alarm of the Russian government). Eager to appeal to the West, Saakashvili's party, the United National Movement, moved away from its previous centre-left positioning and took up the mantle of 'liberal conservatism'. The main focus of the post-revolution party was economic liberalism alongside civic nationalism - a recipe clearly designed to appeal to the West (particularly America, who had already referred to the 'Rose Revolution' as a 'powerful moment' from a 'key ally in the region'). In fact, so wide-ranging have their reforms been, that the World Bank has named Georgia as the number one economic reformer in the world, and the country is ranked 18 for 'ease of doing business'.

As a supporter of free market economics, it was clear that the Georgian leader would seek closer links with the West, and so it has proven. Since coming to power, Saakashvili has courted the EU and NATO in a bid to gain membership to these prestigious Western organisations. So keen has he been to seek America's favour, that he even agreed to double the number of troops Georgia sent into Iraq, making Georgian forces one of the largest outside the US and UK. Furthermore, the Georgian government, through it's attempts to court NATO membership, has also shown it's willingness to be utilised as a base for America's so-called 'missile shield' in Central and Eastern Europe. Certainly, Bush has been keen to give the Georgian government full NATO membership, although he has so far been defeated (incidentally, it is worth noting that NATO intends to vote on Georgian membership once more in December). There is no doubt that this is Bush's man. An economic liberal eager to open up markets and adopt a Western style of government in a region dominated by the former Soviet Union.

Despite the appearance of the Georgian leader in the Western media, Saakashvili is certainly not whiter than white. On July 1st 2005, Georgian police violently clashed with protesters in central Tbilisi over the detention of two athletes for blackmail. The initial demonstration soon turned into a demonstration against the central authorities, who had already stopped attempts at an earlier rally. Anti-riot police and special military forces armed with machine guns proceeded to violently disperse the rally and put an end to the anti-government protests. As a result of the rally, 25 people were arrested, including 5 opposition politicians.

Further demonstrations occurred in November 2007 when 50,000 demonstrators took to the streets to protest against the allegedly corrupt Georgian regime. Saakashvilli was accused of presiding over an authoritarian regime and there was a growing demand for fresh democratic elections. Once more the crowds were dispersed with armed riot police utilising tear gas, rubber bullets and water canons. Protesters were beaten and men dressed in black clothes and black masks also attacked protesters. As a result of the violence, some 508 people were admitted to hospital, most suffering with the effects of exposure to tear gas.

This is, of course, the kind of leader that Bush admires. As Naomi Klein has demonstrated in The Shock Doctrine, new liberal policies go hand in hand with violent crackdowns on the civilian population. Saakashvili has been instrumental in Georgia's neo-liberal development over the past four years (hence it's standing with the World Bank) whilst simultaneously crushing dissent and cementing his position at the head of an authoritarian regime. It comes, therefore, as no surprise to see the Western response to the latest crimes against humanity perpetuated by this Friedmanite Georgian leader.

Whilst it appears to have been forgotten by much of the media, it was Georgia that instigated the recent violence. Keen to recover the kind of popularity he received at the instigation of the Rose Revolution, Saakashavili has seen his approval rating plummet from around 86% when entering office to around 16% at the end of 2007. Given the problems in South Ossetia, an attempt to unify Georgia would surely boost approval ratings. All that was needed was the support of the US and other Western allies to ensure that it could go ahead without getting in the way of Georgia's broader ambitions (EU, NATO etc). Given the strategic significance of the region for the US (particularly in light of the missile defence program), there was no way that the US would stand in the way. In fact, there has been some evidence that the US had been actively involved in the assault on South Ossetia.

As recently as July this year, around 1,600 troops from the US, Georgia and other Eastern European countries had been involved in exercises near the Georgian border. Good old Condi Rice even visited the region recently during a particularly tense stand-off in the region during which time one US state official stated that:

"Moscow should realize its Soviet empire is gone."

And it even appears that Israel has been involved in training the Georgian army in what appears to be a repeat of the assault on Lebanon in 2006:

“In addition to the spy drones, Israel has also been supplying Georgia with infantry weapons and electronics for artillery systems, and has helped upgrade Soviet-designed Su-25 ground attack jets assembled in Georgia, according to Koba Liklikadze, an independent military expert based in Tbilisi. Former Israeli generals also serve as advisers to the Georgian military.” [hat-tip InfoWars]

The fact that Georgia had increased it's military spending from $30 million to $1 billion, and that the US was giving massive military aid, indicates that the Georgian government were preparing for open conflict. Furthermore, the US has further worsened the situation in South Ossetia by airlifting Georgian troops from Iraq into Georgia in an attempt to aid the Georgian government. Bush's finger prints are all over this one. Clearly they have pushed the boat out to aid a fellow economic liberal in yet another disastrous foreign intervention. Much like the situation in Lebanon in 2006, the US's actions will only lead to a strengthening of the power they were seeking to undermine. The 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon led to the strengthening of Hezbollah and Iran. There is no doubt that this current conflict will lead to the strengthening of Russia within the region.

Putting aside the tactical error made by the Bush administration, there has been a series of serious human rights abuses perpetuated by the Georgian armed forces during the assault on South Ossetia. According to one source:

"Much of the city (Tskhinvali) was reportedly in flames Friday. The regional parliament building had burned down, the university was on fire, and the town’s main hospital had been rendered inoperative by the bombardment."

Vesti radio reported that Georgian forces burned down a church in Tanara in South Ossetia where people were hiding, to the ground, with all the people inside. The Deputy Director of an information agency as an eye witness reported that fragments of cluster bombs of were found in Tskinvali. There have also been reports by a South Ossetian reservist that civilians who were hiding in basements were shot dead by Georgian soldiers.

Wikipedia reports that, "Russian soldiers captured group of American mercenaries on territory of South Ossetia. Group was captured near of Zare village."

An estimated 1,500 people have died in the onslaught and 30,000 more fled across the Russian border. Large swaths of the city have been reduced to rubble including the one hospital that was pounded by Georgia bombers. Georgia has cut off the water supply to the city.The Red Cross now anticipates a "humanitarian catastrophe" as a result of the fighting.

“I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars,” Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, told the Associated Press after fleeing the city with her family to a village near the Russian border. “It’s impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged.”

At least 15 Russia peacekeepers were killed in the initial fighting and 70 more were sent to hospital. Georgia's army stormed the South Ossetia capital, Tskhinvali, killing more than 1,000 fleeing civilians. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told news agencies in an interview how the hostilities began:

Russian peacekeepers "were killed by their own [Georgian] partners in the peacekeeping forces. There is a Russian battalion, an Ossetian battalion, and a Georgian battalion... and all of a sudden the Georgians, Georgian peacekeepers, begin shooting their Russian colleagues. This is of course a war crime. I do not rule out that the Hague and Strasbourg courts and institutions in other cities will be involved in investigating these crimes, and this inhuman drama that has been played out."

And yet, these human rights abuses seem to have underplayed whilst the US and her partners continue to attack Russian aggression, and simultaneously refusing to condemn the actions of the Georgian government. Saakashvili has shown his quality in the past. He is not afraid of abusing individual human rights to maintain his stronghold on the country and seek favour with the US. The fact that he is prepared to compare the situation with Kosovo when his own forces have behaved so barbarically in South Ossetia reveals the lengths to which he is prepared to go to win the PR battle, a battle that he certainly seems to be winning in the West when one glances at the media. Whilst there is no excuse for a Russian invasion of Georgia, observers must remember that the Georgian leader is behind this crisis and he has proven that he is nothing more than a war criminal with authoritarian tendencies. One can only hope that his gross folly will lead to his inevitable removal and the Georgian people can have a leader that cares about the interests of the populace and not neo-liberal global posturing to court favour with the West.

US Talks Up Link Between North Korea and Syria

Remember the story about the Israeli air raid in Syria? It now appears that the US and Israel are suggesting that North Korea was aiding a Syrian nuclear programme. From CNN:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Members of Congress will learn during closed-door briefings Thursday about North Korea's possible role in building a suspected nuclear facility in Syria, according to a source familiar with internal administration discussions.

U.S. intelligence officials will demonstrate that North Korea was helping Syria build the facility that Israeli warplanes bombed last year, the source said.

The United States and Israel have refused to comment on the target of September airstrike.

Some members of Congress have demanded to know what information the administration has about the incident.

Thursday's briefings to intelligence, foreign relations and armed services committees in both chambers of Congress are intended to show that the building hit was a North Korean-designed reactor being built with assistance from Pyongyang, the source said.

It is less clear whether North Korea had provided or was about to provide essential fuel components to Syria, according to the source.


The action itself was, of course, highly illegal. No nation has the right to invade a sovereign nation, whatever their 'justification'. It appears to be a desperate measure by a US government that is eager to pull the trigger on yet another nation in the Middle East in order to spread it's influence across the region. Anyone who believes that there is the remote possibility of this actually being true is very sadly mistaken. And, even if it is true, Syria has just as much right to develop a civilian nuclear programme as any other nation (much as I despise nuclear power). Sabres are being rattled and propaganda is coming thick and fast. Do not be surprised if there is an escalation in the rhetoric.

President Uribe Shakes Hands With Correa and Chavez

The prolonged stand-off in Latin America has finally drawn to a close, but not before a continuation of the war of words that has been a feature of this confrontation. Before finally agreeing to shake hands with Correa and Chavez, Uribe continued to make accusations regarding supposed links between President Correa and the FARC. Considering the originator of these remarks, the accusations are laughable. Uribe has well documented links to terrorists within his own country. However, President Uribe finally conceded that the Colombians should not have entered Ecuadorean land and the subsequent declaration noted that President Uribe had apologised for the incursion.

Uribe's humiliation was complete when, after a heated exchange, the Dominican President Leonel Fernandez tried to calm things down by urging Uribe to shake hands with his antagonists (see clip below). You could sense the unease as Uribe made his way round the table to shake hands with Correa and Chavez. There is no doubt about who the overall

winner is as a result of this stand-off. Chavez stood 'shoulder to shoulder' with Correa in the immediate aftermath of the incursion into Ecuador. He stood firm and refused to concede any ground to President Uribe during the entire stand-off. The sight of a humiliated Uribe walking around the table to concede to Chavez is a massive victory for the Venezuelan. Chavez further humiliated Uribe by posing as the peacemaker in the region. According to one report:

Venezuela president Hugo Chavez today asked Alvaro Uribe, president of Colombia, to set aside their differences and work together for peace-

"Let us move far away from war and work for peace," he said, after denying funding the FARC guerrilla.

Such scenes and rhetoric will surely rankle those in Washington who were hoping that this crisis would diminish Chavez's standing in Latin America. After all, this was what the stand-off was really about. An attempt to undermine the leftist leaders in South America and re-assert US dominance in the region. However, America's man has been left to look weak and subservient, whilst the populist leaders (particularly Chavez) have emerged even stronger. Uribe will surely be in for a dressing down by his masters in the White House after this abject display.

Colombian Lies About Ecuador and Venezuela - Part of Wider US Campaign?

The situation is continuing to escalate in South America. Ecuador and Venezuela have now, according to the BBC, cut all ties with the Colombian government, expelling all Colombian diplomats. Unsurprisingly, the Colombian government have embarked on a massive smear campaign (aided, no doubt, by the US) to damage the reputations of both Chavez and Correa. The following is taken from the International Herald Tribune:

Venezuela and Ecuador sought Monday to make Colombia pay a high price for killing a leftist rebel leader in the Ecuadorean jungle — expelling its diplomats, ordering troops to the border and cracking down on trade across the border.

But Colombia quickly struck back, revealing what it said were incriminating documents seized from the rebel camp that suggest its neighbors have been secretly supporting the leftist rebels' deadly insurgency.

Colombia's national police chief stood by its attack that killed Reyes, and said that documents recovered from his laptop showed Venezuela's leftist government recently paid $300 million to the rebels, among other financial and political ties that date back years, and that high-level meetings have been held between rebels and Ecuadorean officials.

And this shocker: Colombia says some documents suggest the rebels have bought and sold uranium.

"When they mention negotiations for 50 kilos of uranium this means that the FARC are taking big steps in the world of terrorism to become a global aggressor. We're not talking of domestic guerrilla but transnational terrorism," Gen. Oscar Naranjo said at an explosive news conference.

But here is the killer:

Naranjo didn't give any details on when, where or from whom the uranium was allegedly bought. He provided no proof of the payment and wouldn't release copies of the documents, which he said are "tremendously revelatory" and are being examined with the help of U.S. experts.

No prizes for guessing what the US experts might deduce. Of course, most of what Colombia alleges must be taken with a pinch of salt. The Colombian government has a long history of involvement with human rights abuses and paramilitary activity and can hardly be taken seriously when accusing others of dubious activity.

It has also emerged that the Colombian government has also seriously compromised efforts by the French government to release one of the hostages, Ingrid Betancourt. Betancourt is a former Colombian presidential candidate who also holds French nationality and has been the subject of negotiations between the French government and the FARC. The French government's contact had been Raul Reyes, until his murder by the Colombian military. The murder of this key contact has made efforts by the French government to release her even more desperate. French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner told French Inter radio on Monday:

"It is bad news that the man we were talking to, with whom we had contacts, has been killed. Do you see how ugly the world is?"

Ugly indeed when the Colombian government invades sovereign territory to assassinate a key contact for the release of a hostage.

Furthermore, it has also emerged that the Colombian account of events leading up to the murder of Reyes were stretching the truth somewhat. It would appear that the FARC had not launched any attack on Colombia from the camp in Ecuador, contradicting claims by the Colombian government. The following is lifted from a piece on ZNet by Decio Machado:

Images, testimonies of resident and of three guerrillas found alive, ballistic reports and Ecuadorian military intelligence demonstrate the heap of lies of the Colombian President, Alvaro Uribe. According to the Colombian version, the Front 48 of the FARC was being pursued on indication that Reyes would be present in a small settlement called Granada, near the Ecuadorian frontier but still in Colombian territory.

The Colombian Defence Minister, Juan Manuel Santos, indicated that during the operation the Colombian armed forces had been attacked from a FARC camp situated 1,800 metres from the border in Ecuadorian territory. The Colombian air force then located and attacked the guerrilla camp, taking into account the order not to violate the Ecuadorian air space. The Colombian armed forces later went in to ensure control of the place, leaving the Colombian police in charge till the arrival of the Ecuadorian army.

Investigations on the part of the Ecuadorian authorities show there was no combat on the side of the FARC unit which was attacked. With the exception of three of them keeping guard, the 18 killed were asleep in their undergarments; none of the guerrillas had the opportunity of fighting or surrendering. The arms in the camp were piled up. They did not have the chance even to reach for their rifles and grenades; they were massacred while asleep.

The testimonies of the residents of the area, as also the large craters on the camp ground, show that four bombs were launched from Colombian aircraft that entered Ecuadorian territory. According to the investigations of the military intelligence, these were launched from the south of the camp, which is to say that the aircraft had intruded more than 10 km into Ecuadorian territory when the attack began.

After the bombing from these aircraft, several ‘Supertuscan’ helicopters of the Colombian air force came in and from these the attack on the FARC camp in Ecuadorian territory continued. The helicopters landed special commandos who finished off the injured guerrillas. As the bullet wounds in the bodies of the majority of the guerrillas show, many of them were piled up in a part of the camp and killed from behind. Even the photographs taken by the Colombian government of Raul Reyes’ body show he had a shot on the left side of his face.

Information coming from Ecuadorian military intelligence indicates that the country’s air space was not only violated on the dawn of March 1 but also that on the dawn of March 2 there was another incursion of the helicopters with night vision equipment to pick up members of the armed forces and Colombian police still in Ecuadorian territory. The position of the trees brought down by the bombardment, the multiple bullet holes on them, as also the position of the bodies, demonstrate that while the FARC was guarding the camp on the northern side facing the Colombian frontier, the air incursion happened from the south, which indicates that the Colombian air force intruded without permission or notification, contravening all international norms about Ecuadorian air space.

The testimonies of the area’s residents indicate the attack lasted from approximately after midnight till six in the morning of March 1. The precision of the attack also shows the use of important military technology which puts on the table the possibility of the participation of the United States in the massacres, at least in spotting the guerrilla unit.

It would certainly appear that the US has it's hands all over this one. What with the combination of military intelligence/hardware and the 'experts' who are analysing documents at the scene that supposedly link Venezuela and Ecuador with what the US calls a 'terrorist organisation', could we possibly see a widening of the 'war on terror'?? Could the United States be on the verge of turning it's attention back on to it's own backyard and launching a new vicious campaign to turn back the "pink tide" sweeping South America?? Perhaps this re-assertion has become more desperate as a result of Ecuador's recent decision not to renew the agreement with the US to utilise the Manta air base as part of the Plan Colombia strategy. Whatever, the US government is clearly concerned about it's weakening hegemony in the region and is prepared to step up efforts to ensure it is the dominant player in the region once more.

See also:

Ecuador Rising - Hatarinchej - The people of Ecuador are rising up to refound their country as a pluri-national homeland for all. This inspiring movement, with Ecuador's indigenous peoples at its heart, is part of the revolution spreading across the Americas, laying the groundwork for a new, fairer, world. Ecuador Rising aims to bring news and analysis of events unfolding in Ecuador to english speakers. [Added to blogroll]

UPDATE

It now appears that President Uribe is calling for Chavez to be charged by the International Criminal Court for "financing genocide". Yes, you did read that correctly. The President of a country in which paramilitaries are free to roam the country and murder trade unionists with impunity is attempting to have Chavez prosecuted for genocide. Perhaps if the ICC is to look into Uribe's ridiculous claims, it might also take serious action against the Colombian government for allowing union members to be murdered with impunity.